Lightning advice

E-merl.com has some advice for dealing with lightning,

Kapiti vs Wellington

A quick dig at the parochial family up the coast! Here’s some February ‘09 temp stats for ya,

Paraparaumu:

Mean Feb temp = 17.1
Highest Feb maximum = 23.0 (2nd)
Lowest Feb minimum = 5.0 (15th)
Number of days >21C = 9
Number of days >23C = 0

Wellington:

Mean Feb temp = 17.1
Highest Feb maximum = 26.0 (8th)
Lowest Feb minimum = 8.0 (15th)
Number of days >21C = 10
Number of days >23C = 3

Fine and sunny in NZ

Unless you’re in Fiordland I suppose…

Here’s the view of New Zealand from space early this afternoon (Sat 24 Jan),

Almost cloud free – and warm too, with most places pushing into the high 20’s early afternoon and some spots already topping 30C (see the NZ temperature map at MetService.com).

The image above is from NOAA’s website, where you can get hourly visible and infrared satellite images for NZ. Or, visit my satellite imagery links page for other sites.

Strange looking weather map

If you’ve looked at this weekend’s forecast weather map you might notice something strange. Something we haven’t seen for quite some time – over a month in fact. Here’s a sneak peek at the situation for noon Saturday,

Yes folks, do not be alarmed, that “H” with a big number next to it is a good thing! Finally, we have an anticyclone crossing the country. So noteworthy is this event, that MetService have issued a press release…

AUGUST ENDS ON A HIGH

MetService forecasters expect the last few days of August to bring generally dry weather as an anticyclone moves across the South Island.

“This is the first anticyclone to visit New Zealand since mid-July’, said MetService Weather Ambassador, Bob McDavitt. “It will bring light winds to much of the country and several dry days to the east of the South Island and southern parts of the North Island, where they are most needed”.

The anticyclone is not 100% dry. As pressures rise over the South Island on Friday, a southwesterly wind change is likely to bring a brief period of showers to eastern districts. Over the weekend, easterly winds may bring cloud and showers to Coromandel and Northland, and drizzle is likely for parts of the West Coast of the South Island.

“It’ll should be a good weekend for skiing”, added Mr. McDavitt.

So, stock up the sun cream, get the kids pumped for sport and pack the picnic basket! Enjoy it while it lasts.

Sadly, I’m working all weekend… weather forecasting! Bugger.

Now that’s a weather warning!

They don’t come much bigger than this…

Issued by MetService at 08:29pm 29-Jul-2008

MAJOR STORM MOVING TOWARDS NORTH ISLAND WILL BRING ADVERSE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE COUNTRY A deepening low northwest of the North Island should lie west of Taranaki by midnight Wednesday and cross central New Zealand during Thursday.Further rain is expected over Northland with heavy falls overnight as an active front moves southwards, then easing in the morning. The front will move over Auckland early morning then onto the centre of the North Island later in the morning, bringing heavy rain to Coromandel Peninsula,Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. Heavy rain will also spread into parts of Marlborough, Nelson and Canterbury in the afternoon.

Gale force winds are expected in exposed areas, and easterly winds are likely to reach severe gale in areas west of the main ranges from Waikato down to Westland. The easterly gales are also expected to bring heavy swells and high seas to eastern coasts of both islands.

People in these areas are advised to watch out for quickly rising streams and rivers and surface flooding. Also, high winds may cause damage to trees and roofs and flying debris may be a hazard in some places.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND TECHNICAL USERS FOLLOWS:

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

AREAS AFFECTED: NORTHLAND AUCKLAND COROMANDEL PENINSULA BAY OF PLENTY GISBORNE HAWKES BAY WAIRARAPA MARLBOROUGH NELSON CANTERBURY

FORECAST:

NORTHLAND Rain is expected to become heavy again tonight. In the 12 hours from 6pm Tuesday to 6am Wednesday, another 50 to 70mm is possible in some places, especially about the eastern hills. Heaviest falls are likely to be from about 10pm to early morning when intensities could reach 10 to 25mm per hour with a few embedded thunderstorms. The rain should ease north of Bay of Islands by about 3am and farther south by about 6am.Strong northwesterlies and scattered showers will follow for the rest of tomorrow.

AUCKLAND Rain should become heavier overnight. In the 6 to 8 hours from midnight Tuesday around 70mm is possible in some places, especially about the hills of northern and eastern Auckland. In many other places 30 to 50mm is likely. Peak intensities 15 to 20mm per hour a little before dawn.

COROMANDEL PENINSULA AND BAY OF PLENTY WEST OF KAWERAU Rain heavy at times. Between 6pm Tuesday and 9am Wednesday expect 120 to 160mm in the ranges and 70mm possible down to the coast. Peak intensities around 25mm per hour in embedded thunderstorms in the morning.

BAY OF PLENTY RANGES EAST OF KAWERAU Rain becoming heavy Wednesday morning. In the 6 to 9 hours from 6am Wednesday,70 to 90mm possible with peak intensities 15 to 20mm per hour.

RANGES OF GISBORNE NORTH OF GISBORNE CITY Rain should become heavy Wednesday morning. In the 12 hours from midnight Tuesday to midday Wednesday expect 100 to 120mm in the ranges. Intensities could reach 15 to 20mm per hour in embedded thunderstorms.

GISBORNE RANGES SOUTH OF GISBORNE CITY and HAWKES BAY RANGES NORTH OF WAIPUKURAU In the 12 hours from 3am to 3pm Wednesday, 80 to 100mm possible in the ranges, with heaviest falls of 10 to 20mm around late Wednesday morning.

HAWKES BAY RANGES SOUTH OF WAIPUKURAU AND RANGES OF WAIRARAPA Rain should develop overnight and become heavy tomorrow morning. In the 9 hours from 6am to 3pm Wednesday 70mm is possible.

KAIKOURA RANGES Rain is expected to become heavy overnight. In the 24 hours from 3am Wednesday to 3am Thursday expect 120 to 150 mm.

RICHMOND RANGES Rain is expected to become heavy overnight. In the 24 hours from 3am Wednesday to 3am Thursday expect 100 to 120 mm.

RANGES OF NORTHWEST NELSON Rain is expected to become heavy Wednesday morning. In the 24 hours from midnight tonight until midnight Wednesday expect 120 to 150mm possible in the ranges.

CANTERBURY Rain is expected to become heavy Wednesday afternoon. In the 24 hours from 3pm Wednesday to 3pm Thursday expect 100 to 140mm in the foothills and 40 to 60mm over the plains. Snow is expected to develop above 500 metres and 40 to 50cm may accumulate above 800 metres,deeper in drifts. However, the snow level is expected to rise later on Thursday as warmer air spreads south.

FREEZING LEVEL SOUTH ISLAND: 1100 metres rising to 2000 metres Thursday.

STRONG WIND WARNING

AREAS AFFECTED: WAIKATO WAITOMO TAUMARUNUI TAUPO TARANAKI TAIHAPE WANGANUI MANAWATU NELSON MARLBOROUGH BULLER WESTLAND

FORECAST:WAIKATO WAITOMO TAUMARUNUI TAUPO Easterly gales are expected to develop in the morning. In the 9 hours from midnight to 9am Wednesday severe gales with gusts of 130 km/h are possible in exposed places.

TARANAKI TAIHAPE WANGANUI MANAWATU NELSON MARLBOROUGH Easterly gales are expected to develop early Wednesday. In the 15 hours from 3am to 6pm Wednesday severe gales with gusts of 120 to 150km/h are possible in exposed places.

BULLER WESTLAND Easterly gales are expected to develop Wednesday morning. In the 15 hours from 6am to 9pm Wednesday severe gales with gusts of 120 to 150km/h are possible in exposed places.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00am Wednesday 30-Jul-2008

Forecast prepared by: Bob Lake

For further information after 9pm contact Duty Forecaster Gerard Barrow A service provided through a contract with the Crown

Yes, that warning covers all NZ regions with the exception of Wellington, Otago, Southland and Fiordland!

As highlighted in the warning headline, this is shaping up to be a major storm. For the latest official warnings, forecasts and observations, visit MetService.com where you’ll find the following pages, (and much more!)

- Warning Map with multiple links for detailed info
- Severe Weather Warning Text
- Road Snowfall Warnings
- Thunderstorm Outlook
- MSL Analysis Maps
- Satellite Imagery
- Radar Imagery

US Hurricane Prediction

via xkcd,